Extracellular volume fraction determined by equilibrium contrast-enhanced dual-energy CT as a prognostic factor in patients with stage IV pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Objectives: To evaluate the feasibility of equilibrium contrast-enhanced dual-energy CT (DECT), as compared with single-energy CT (SECT) and to calculate extracellular volume (ECV) fraction to predict the survival outcomes of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients with distant metastases (stage IV) treated with chemotherapy.
Methods: The study cohort included a total of 66 patients with stage IV PDAC who underwent DECT before systemic chemotherapy between July 2014 and March 2017. Unenhanced and 120-kVp equivalent images during the equilibrium phase were used to calculate tumor SECT-derived ECV fractions, and iodine density images were obtained from equilibrium-phase DECT for DECT-derived ECV fractions. Correlations between SECT- and DECT-derived ECV fractions were identified using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Bland-Altman analysis. The effects of clinical prognostic factors and tumor SECT- and DECT-derived ECV fractions on progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox proportional hazards models.
Results: The correlation between SECT- and DECT-derived ECV fractions was strong (r = 0.965; p < 0.001). The Bland-Altman plot between SECT- and DECT-derived ECV fractions showed a small bias (- 3.4%). Increasing tumor SECT- and DECT-derived ECV fractions were associated with a positive effect on PFS (SECT, p = 0.002; DECT, p = 0.007) and OS (DECT, p = 0.014; DECT, p = 0.015). Only tumor DECT-derived ECV fraction was an independent predictor of PFS (p = 0.018) and OS (p = 0.022) in patients with stage IV PDAC treated with chemotherapy on multivariate analysis.
Conclusions: The ECV fraction determined by equilibrium contrast-enhanced DECT can potentially predict the survival of patients with stage IV PDAC treated with chemotherapy.
Key Points: • Extracellular volume fraction of stage IV pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma determined by dual-energy CT was strongly correlated to that with single-energy CT (r = 0.965, p < 0.001). • Tumor extracellular volume fraction was an independent predictor of progression-free survival (p = 0.018) and overall survival (p = 0.022). • Extracellular volume fraction determined by dual-energy CT could be a useful imaging biomarker to predict the survival of patients with stage IV pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma treated with chemotherapy.