[Spatial management strategy of Zhujiajian Island based on island ecological vulnerability simulation].

In the past decade, the number of islands fixed link with mainland has been increasing rapidly. The construction of such projects improves the accessibility of islands, which results in a rapid increase of tourists and economic income. However, the rapid change of land use and increases of tourists will make the islands more vulnerable. It is urgent to formulate ecosystem management strategy for island ecosystems based on the scientifical prediction of the island ecological vulnerability and accurate identification of sensitive areas. Island ecological vulnerability assessment model was used to evaluate the ecological vulnerability of Zhujiajian Island. Taking 2015 as the starting date, we simulated the changes of tourists and land use, as well as the changes of island ecological vulnerability in the next 20 years. Then, the management strategy was formulated based on the vulnerability assessment and sensitive analysis. The results showed that the ecosystem of Zhujiajian Island was in good condition now, with limited area at moderate and severe vulnerable status. With the rapid increases of tourists and island development intensity, the ecological vulnerability of the island tended to more vulnerability with the increases of severe vulnerability and shrink of low vulnerability. According to the vulnerability assessment and sensitivity analysis, the Zhujiajian Island could be divided into prohibited development zones, restricted development zones and conditional development zones with different ecosystem management strategies.