Do childhood psychotic experiences improve the prediction of adolescent psychopathology? A longitudinal population-based study.

Aims: (a) To investigate the utility of childhood PE as a predictor of adolescent psychopathology while accounting for three known risk factors: childhood mental disorder; traumatic experiences and poor childhood functioning, and (b) to investigate the additive effects of including childhood PE in predictive clinical model of adolescent psychopathology.
Method: The study sample comprised of 86 Irish youths who completed two waves of the "Adolescent Brain Development" study (baseline age: 11.7 and follow-up age: 15.7). At baseline, participants completed a clinical interview assessing for PE, mental disorders, traumatic experiences and global functioning in childhood. The internalizing and externalizing problems sub-scales from the Youth Self Report questionnaire were used as follow-up outcomes variables in adolescence.
Results: Logistic regression analyses revealed that childhood PE was the only predictor significantly associated with both internalizing (univariate OR: 7.58, CI: 2.59-22.15; multivariate OR: 5.43, CI: 1.53-19.29) and externalizing (univariate OR: 11.76, CI: 3.70-37.41; multivariate OR: 30.39, CI: 5.28-174.80) problems in adolescence. All predictive models with PE significantly predicted adolescent outcomes (area under the curve range: 0.70-0.81; all P < 0.05) and adding PE to the models improved the predictive value for externalizing problems (P = 0.02).
Conclusion: Childhood PE is a powerful predictor of adolescent psychopathology, particularly for externalizing problems. Routine assessment of PE and targeted support for children who report PE may reduce the incidence of mental disorder in adolescence.
(© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.)