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Modeling the Airborne Infection Risk of Tuberculosis for a Research Facility in eMalahleni, South Africa.
- Source :
-
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis [Risk Anal] 2019 Mar; Vol. 39 (3), pp. 630-646. Date of Electronic Publication: 2018 Sep 19. - Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- A detailed mathematical modeling framework for the risk of airborne infectious disease transmission in indoor spaces was developed to enable mathematical analysis of experiments conducted at the Airborne Infections Research (AIR) facility, eMalahleni, South Africa. A model was built using this framework to explore possible causes of why an experiment at the AIR facility did not produce expected results. The experiment was conducted at the AIR facility from August 31, 2015 to December 4, 2015, in which the efficacy of upper room germicidal ultraviolet (GUV) irradiation as an environmental control was tested. However, the experiment did not produce the expected outcome of having fewer infections in the test animal room than the control room. The simulation results indicate that dynamic effects, caused by switching the GUV lights, power outages, or introduction of new patients, did not result in the unexpected outcomes. However, a sensitivity analysis highlights that significant uncertainty exists with risk of transmission predictions based on current measurement practices, due to the reliance on large viable literature ranges for parameters.<br /> (© 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.)
- Subjects :
- Animals
Biomedical Research
Computer Simulation
Disease Outbreaks
Disinfection
Facility Design and Construction
Female
Guinea Pigs
Humans
Infections
Infectious Disease Medicine
Male
Models, Animal
Models, Theoretical
Mycobacterium tuberculosis
Patients' Rooms
Probability
South Africa
Tuberculosis diagnosis
Ultraviolet Rays
Ventilation
Air Microbiology
Environmental Monitoring methods
Risk Assessment methods
Tuberculosis epidemiology
Tuberculosis transmission
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1539-6924
- Volume :
- 39
- Issue :
- 3
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 30229975
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13180