An evaluation framework for new tests that predict progression from tuberculosis infection to clinical disease.

Novel accurate tests are needed that identify individuals infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis who have incipient disease and are likely to develop clinical tuberculosis (TB) in the near future to allow for targeted preventive treatment beyond the current risk groups. Recently, a target product profile was developed that outlines the minimal and optimal characteristics for such an incipient TB test. We describe an evaluation framework for generating evidence to inform the development of policy guidance for the use of such a new test by the World Health Organization. Two research objectives are addressed. 1) The predictive ability of an incipient TB test should be assessed in clinical evaluation studies that include the intended target population and follow-up of sufficient duration to observe whether individuals do or do not progress to clinical TB disease. 2) Studies are needed to evaluate the test under routine programmatic conditions and measure its impact on patient- or health-system-important outcomes. For both research objectives, study designs, methods and analysis are described, with the intent to inform the clinical development plans of test manufacturers, researchers and funders.
Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: C.M. Denkinger: FIND (Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics) is a not-for-profit foundation, whose mission is to find diagnostic solutions to overcome diseases of poverty in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). It works closely with the private and public sectors and receives funding from some of its industry partners. It has organisational firewalls to protect it against any undue influences in its work or the publication of its findings. All industry partnerships are subject to review by an independent Scientific Advisory Committee or another independent review body, based on due diligence, target product profiles and public sector requirements. FIND catalyses product development, leads evaluations, takes positions and accelerates access to tools identified as serving its mission. It provides indirect support to industry (e.g. access to open specimen banks, a clinical trial platform, technical support, expertise, laboratory capacity strengthening in LMICs) to facilitate the development and use of products in these areas. FIND also supports the evaluation of prioritised assays and the early stages of implementation of WHO-approved (guidance and prequalification) assays using donor grants. In order to carry out test validations and evaluations, FIND has product evaluation agreements with several private sector companies, which strictly define its independence and neutrality vis-a-vis the companies whose products get evaluated, and describe roles and responsibilities.
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