Debiasing visual pilots' weather-related decision making.

Pilots who decide to continue a flight into deteriorating weather conditions, rather than turn back or divert, are a significant cause of fatal crashes in general aviation. Earlier research has suggested that cognitive biases such as the anchoring effect and confirmation bias are implicated in many decisions to continue into worsening weather. In this study, we explored whether a simple debiasing technique, 'considering the alternative', reduced the effect of these two potentially fatal biases. Despite the study being adequately powered, our attempts to reduce the effects of biases were both unsuccessful. Negative findings such as these are particularly useful in aviation, as they can provide information on what does not work in this high stakes industry, even though such strategies may work elsewhere.
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