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Probabilistic Evaluation of Ecological and Economic Objectives of River Basin Management Reveals a Potential Flaw in the Goal Setting of the EU Water Framework Directive.
- Source :
-
Environmental management [Environ Manage] 2017 Apr; Vol. 59 (4), pp. 584-593. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Dec 16. - Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- The biological status of European lakes has not improved as expected despite up-to-date legislation and ecological standards. As a result, the realism of objectives and the attainment of related ecological standards are under doubt. This paper gets to the bottom of a river basin management plan of a eutrophic lake in Finland and presents the ecological and economic impacts of environmental and societal drivers and planned management measures. For these purposes, we performed a Monte Carlo simulation of a diffuse nutrient load, lake water quality and cost-benefit models. Simulations were integrated into a Bayesian influence diagram that revealed the basic uncertainties. It turned out that the attainment of good ecological status as qualified in the Water Framework Directive of the European Union is unlikely within given socio-economic constraints. Therefore, management objectives and ecological and economic standards need to be reassessed and reset to provide a realistic goal setting for management. More effort should be put into the evaluation of the total monetary benefits and on the monitoring of lake phosphorus balances to reduce the uncertainties, and the resulting margin of safety and costs and risks of planned management measures.
- Subjects :
- Bayes Theorem
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Ecology
Environmental Monitoring legislation & jurisprudence
Environmental Monitoring statistics & numerical data
European Union
Finland
Goals
Monte Carlo Method
Phosphorus analysis
Uncertainty
Environmental Monitoring economics
Lakes chemistry
Models, Theoretical
Rivers chemistry
Water Quality
Water Supply economics
Water Supply legislation & jurisprudence
Water Supply statistics & numerical data
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1432-1009
- Volume :
- 59
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Environmental management
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 27981355
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-016-0806-z