Radiation-induced fibrosis in the boost area after three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy with a simultaneous integrated boost technique for early-stage breast cancer: A multivariable prediction model.

Background and Purpose: To develop a multivariable prediction model for the risk of grade⩾2 fibrosis in the boost area after breast conserving surgery (BCS) followed by three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (RT) with a simultaneous integrated photon boost (3D-CRT-SIB), five years after RT.
Material and Methods: This prospective cohort study included 1,030 patients treated with RT for breast cancer (stage 0-III), after BCS. Data regarding physician-rated fibrosis and dose-volume parameters were available in 546 patients. A multivariable logistic regression model for grade⩾2 fibrosis was generated.
Results: At 5years, grade⩾2 fibrosis was observed in 13.4% of the patients. The multivariable analysis resulted in a prediction model for grade⩾2 fibrosis in the boost area including three independent variables: patient age, breast volume receiving⩾55Gy (V55 CTV breast) and the maximum radiation dose in the breast (D _max ).
Conclusions: A multivariable prediction model was developed including age, V55 CTV breast and D _max for grade⩾2 fibrosis in the boost area after breast cancer RT using a 3D-CRT-SIB technique. This model can be used to estimate the risk of fibrosis and to optimize dose distributions aiming at reducing this risk.
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