The ability of orthodontists and oral/maxillofacial surgeons to predict eruption of lower third molar.

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of oral/maxillofacial surgeons (OMFSs) and orthodontists to predict third molar eruption by examining a simple panoramic radiograph in cases where full spontaneous eruption occurred.
Methods: Panoramic radiographs of 17 patients, 13-16 years of age, were obtained just after orthodontic treatment (T1), when the third molars were intraosseous. The radiographs at T1 were presented to 28 OMFSs and 28 orthodontists-who were asked to give a prognosis for the lower third molars on both sides (n = 34). The full spontaneous eruption of all third molars was clinically observed when patients were older than 18 years (T2). These teeth were clinically asymptomatic at T1 and T2.
Results: OMFSs decided by extractions in 49.6 % of cases while orthodontists in 37.8 % (p < 0.001), when the radiographs were examined at T1. Agreement between OMFSs and orthodontists was excellent (Kappa = 0.76, p < 0.0001), as well as intragroup agreement for both OMFSs (Kappa = 0.83) and orthodontists (Kappa = 0.96).
Conclusions: Despite a remarkable agreement for third molar prognosis, orthodontists and OMFSs were unable to predict lower third molar eruption by examining a simple panoramic radiograph. Both indicated extractions of a considerable number of spontaneously erupted asymptomatic teeth.