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Prediction of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer outcomes assessed by innovative multimarker prognostic models.
- Source :
-
BMC cancer [BMC Cancer] 2016 Jun 03; Vol. 16, pp. 351. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Jun 03. - Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- Background: We adapted Bayesian statistical learning strategies to the prognosis field to investigate if genome-wide common SNP improve the prediction ability of clinico-pathological prognosticators and applied it to non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) patients.<br />Methods: Adapted Bayesian sequential threshold models in combination with LASSO were applied to consider the time-to-event and the censoring nature of data. We studied 822 NMIBC patients followed-up >10 years. The study outcomes were time-to-first-recurrence and time-to-progression. The predictive ability of the models including up to 171,304 SNP and/or 6 clinico-pathological prognosticators was evaluated using AUC-ROC and determination coefficient.<br />Results: Clinico-pathological prognosticators explained a larger proportion of the time-to-first-recurrence (3.1 %) and time-to-progression (5.4 %) phenotypic variances than SNPs (1 and 0.01 %, respectively). Adding SNPs to the clinico-pathological-parameters model slightly improved the prediction of time-to-first-recurrence (up to 4 %). The prediction of time-to-progression using both clinico-pathological prognosticators and SNP did not improve. Heritability (ĥ (2)) of both outcomes was <1 % in NMIBC.<br />Conclusions: We adapted a Bayesian statistical learning method to deal with a large number of parameters in prognostic studies. Common SNPs showed a limited role in predicting NMIBC outcomes yielding a very low heritability for both outcomes. We report for the first time a heritability estimate for a disease outcome. Our method can be extended to other disease models.
- Subjects :
- Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Area Under Curve
Biomarkers, Tumor analysis
Carcinoma, Transitional Cell genetics
Disease Progression
Genotype
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Neoplasm Recurrence, Local genetics
Neoplasm Recurrence, Local pathology
Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide
Predictive Value of Tests
Prognosis
ROC Curve
Sensitivity and Specificity
Urinary Bladder Neoplasms genetics
Bayes Theorem
Carcinoma, Transitional Cell pathology
Urinary Bladder Neoplasms pathology
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1471-2407
- Volume :
- 16
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- BMC cancer
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 27259534
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-016-2361-7