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Predicting Individual Survival After Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: a Novel Nomogram from the "HCC East & West Study Group".
- Source :
-
Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract [J Gastrointest Surg] 2016 Jun; Vol. 20 (6), pp. 1154-62. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Mar 22. - Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- Introductions: Different staging systems have been devised for patients undergoing resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with disparate results. The aim of this study was to create a new nomogram to predict individual survival after hepatectomy for HCC.<br />Methods: Based on the "Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Eastern & Western Experiences Network," data from 2046 patients who underwent HCC resections at ten centers were reviewed. Patient survival was analyzed with Cox-regression analysis to construct a unique nomogram and contour plots to predict survival.<br />Results: The nomograms built on the multivariate analyses, which showed that the independent predictors were tumor size, tumor number, vascular invasion, cirrhosis, preoperative bilirubin value, and esophageal varices, showed good calibration and discriminatory abilities with C-index value of 0.62 (95 % CI, 0.59-0.69) and 0.61 (95 % CI, 0.56-0.64) for overall and disease-free survival, respectively. The 5-year survival contour plots showed that the presence of vascular invasion was associated with decreased survival, regardless of the tumor number or size. Cirrhosis and varices were equally associated with decreased survival, according to the tumor number or size.<br />Conclusions: These nomograms accurately predict individual prognosis after HCC resection and support an expansion of the selection criteria for resection. They offer useful guidance to clinicians for individual survival prediction.
- Subjects :
- Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Bilirubin blood
Blood Vessels pathology
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular complications
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular pathology
Child
Disease-Free Survival
Esophageal and Gastric Varices complications
Female
Humans
Liver Cirrhosis complications
Liver Neoplasms complications
Liver Neoplasms pathology
Male
Middle Aged
Neoplasm Invasiveness
Retrospective Studies
Survival Rate
Tumor Burden
Young Adult
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular surgery
Hepatectomy
Liver Neoplasms surgery
Nomograms
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1873-4626
- Volume :
- 20
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Journal of gastrointestinal surgery : official journal of the Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 27003271
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s11605-016-3132-0