Non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients with low CHADS2 scores benefit from warfarin therapy according to propensity score matching subanalysis using the J-RHYTHM Registry.

Introduction: Recently, direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have been introduced, with increasing use in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). However, warfarin continues to be widely used and the benefits and risks of warfarin in NVAF patients warrant closer inspection.
Materials and Methods: Thromboembolism, major hemorrhage, and total and cardiovascular mortalities were analyzed in 7,406 NVAF patients in the J-RHYTHM Registry from January to July 2009, prior to DOAC introduction. Propensity score matching analysis was performed to reduce the differences in clinical characteristics between non-anticoagulant (n=1002) and warfarin (n=6404) cohorts to reassess warfarin outcomes over 2years.
Results: The incidence of thromboembolism was significantly greater in the non-anticoagulant cohort (3.0%) than in the warfarin cohort (1.5%, P<0.001) with less frequent major hemorrhage in the non-anticoagulant cohort (0.8%) than in the warfarin cohort (2.1%, P=0.009). Using propensity score matching, new subsets (n=896 each) were obtained, with matching of the clinical characteristics between warfarin and non-anticoagulant subsets. The warfarin subset had lower risk factors compared with the total warfarin cohort. The incidence of thromboembolism was higher in the non-anticoagulant subset (2.9%) than in the warfarin subset (0.7%, P<0.001). However, major hemorrhage was not significantly different between the two subsets.
Conclusions: Although warfarin was associated with a significantly higher incidence of hemorrhage in the unmatched cohorts, propensity score matching revealed that warfarin reduced thromboembolism without a significant increase in hemorrhage in the matched subsets with lower risks. Propensity score matching reduced selection bias and provided rational comparisons although it had indwelling limitations.
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