Forecasting the major influences of predation and environment on cod recovery in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence.

The northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NGSL) stock of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), historically the second largest cod population in the Western Atlantic, has known a severe collapse during the early 1990 s and is currently considered as endangered by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. As for many fish populations over the world which are currently being heavily exploited or overfished, urgent management actions in the form of recovery plans are needed for restoring this stock to sustainable levels. Stochastic projections based on a statistical population model incorporating predation were conducted over a period of 30 years (2010-2040) to assess the expected outcomes of alternative fishing strategies on the stock recovery under different scenarios of harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus) abundance and environmental conditions. This sensitivity study shows that water temperature is key in the rebuilding of the NGSL cod stock. Model projections suggest that maintaining the current management practice under cooler water temperatures is likely to maintain the species in an endangered status. Under current or warmer conditions in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, partial recovery might only be achieved by significant reductions in both fishing and predation pressure. In the medium-term, a management strategy that reduces catch could be favoured over a complete moratorium so as to minimize socio-economic impacts on the industry.