[Simulation of a risk for cardiovascular diseases and their events at individual and group levels].

The transition from the identification of individual risk factors to the assessment of an overall or total risk, in other words, to the creation of prognostic models should be now recognized to be one of the most important achievements in the epidemiology of chronic noncommunicable diseases. The paper comparatively analyzes major current prognostic algorithms for assessing the risk of cardiovascular diseases and their events and the advantages and disadvantages of these algorithms. The authors provide evidence that it is necessary to create national risk models, including the most promising new indicators.