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The validity of self-initiated, event-driven infectious disease reporting in general population cohorts.
- Source :
-
PloS one [PLoS One] 2013 Apr 17; Vol. 8 (4), pp. e61644. Date of Electronic Publication: 2013 Apr 17 (Print Publication: 2013). - Publication Year :
- 2013
-
Abstract
- Background: The 2009/2010 pandemic influenza highlighted the need for valid and timely incidence data. In 2007 we started the development of a passive surveillance scheme based on passive follow-up of representative general population cohorts. Cohort members are asked to spontaneously report all instances of colds and fevers as soon as they occur for up to 9 months. Suspecting that compliance might be poor, we aimed to assess the validity of self-initiated, event-driven outcome reporting over long periods.<br />Methods: During two 8 week periods in 2008 and 2009, 2376 and 2514 cohort members in Stockholm County were sent one-week recall questionnaires, which served as reference method.<br />Results: The questionnaires were completed by 88% and 86% of the cohort members. Whilst the false positive proportion (1-specificity) in the reporting was low (upper bound of the 95% confidence interval [CI] ≤ 2% in each season), the false negative proportion (failure to report, 1-sensitivity) was considerable (60% [95% CI 52%-67%] in each season). Still, the resulting epidemic curves for influenza-like illness compared well with those from existing General Practitioner-based sentinel surveillance in terms of shape, timing of peak, and year-to-year variation. This suggested that the error was fairly constant.<br />Conclusions: Passive long-term surveillance through self-initiated, event-driven outcome reporting underestimates incidence rates of common upper respiratory tract infections. However, because underreporting appears predictable, simple corrections could potentially restore validity.
- Subjects :
- Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Bias
Child
Child, Preschool
Cohort Studies
False Positive Reactions
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Logistic Models
Middle Aged
Multivariate Analysis
Predictive Value of Tests
Reproducibility of Results
Seasons
Sentinel Surveillance
Sweden epidemiology
Young Adult
Disease Notification statistics & numerical data
Influenza, Human epidemiology
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1932-6203
- Volume :
- 8
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- PloS one
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 23613891
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0061644