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Long-term temporal trends and estimated transmission rates for Mycobacterium bovis infection in an undisturbed high-density badger (Meles meles) population.
- Source :
-
Epidemiology and infection [Epidemiol Infect] 2013 Jul; Vol. 141 (7), pp. 1445-56. Date of Electronic Publication: 2013 Mar 28. - Publication Year :
- 2013
-
Abstract
- We describe epidemiological trends in Mycobacterium bovis infection in an undisturbed wild badger (Meles meles) population. Data were derived from the capture, clinical sampling and serological testing of 1803 badgers over 9945 capture events spanning 24 years. Incidence and prevalence increased over time, exhibiting no simple relationship with host density. Potential explanations are presented for a marked increase in the frequency of positive serological test results. Transmission rates (R0) estimated from empirical data were consistent with modelled estimates and robust to changes in test sensitivity and the spatial extent of the population at risk. The risk of a positive culture or serological test result increased with badger age, and varied seasonally. Evidence consistent with progressive disease was found in cubs. This study demonstrates the value of long-term data and the repeated application of imperfect diagnostic tests as indices of infection to reveal epidemiological trends in M. bovis infection in badgers.
- Subjects :
- Animals
England epidemiology
Female
Incidence
Male
Models, Statistical
Population Density
Population Surveillance
Prevalence
Risk
Spatial Analysis
Tuberculosis diagnosis
Tuberculosis epidemiology
Tuberculosis transmission
Mustelidae
Mycobacterium bovis isolation & purification
Tuberculosis veterinary
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1469-4409
- Volume :
- 141
- Issue :
- 7
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Epidemiology and infection
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 23537573
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268813000721