The natural course of social anxiety disorder among adolescents and young adults.

Objective: To examine the natural course of social anxiety disorder (SAD) in the community and to explore predictors for adverse long-term outcomes.
Method: A community sample of N = 3021 subjects aged 14-24 was followed-up over 10 years using the DSM-IV/M-CIDI. Persistence of SAD is based on a composite score reflecting the proportion of years affected since onset. Diagnostic stability is the proportion of SAD subjects still affected at follow-up.
Results: SAD reveals considerable persistence with more than half of the years observed since onset spent with symptoms. 56.7% of SAD cases revealed stability with at least symptomatic expressions at follow-up; 15.5% met SAD threshold criteria again. 15.1% were completely remitted (no SAD symptoms and no other mental disorders during follow-up). Several clinical features (early onset, generalized subtype, more anxiety cognitions, severe avoidance and impairment, co-occurring panic) and vulnerability characteristics (parental SAD and depression, behavioural inhibition, harm avoidance) predicted higher SAD persistence and - less impressively - diagnostic stability.
Conclusion: A persistent course with a considerable degree of fluctuations in symptom severity is characteristic for SAD. Both consistently meeting full threshold diagnostic criteria and complete remissions are rare. Vulnerability and clinical severity indicators predict poor prognosis and might be helpful markers for intervention needs.
(© 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.)