Refining definitions of periodontal disease and caries for prediction models of incident tooth loss.

Aim: To assess the suitability of different definitions of caries and periodontitis for inclusion in tooth loss prediction models.
Materials and Methods: The Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) is a population-based cohort study conducted in 1997-2001 (SHIP-0) and 2002-2006 (SHIP-1). This sample comprised 2,780 subjects aged 20-81 years with complete information on dental and periodontal status [DMFS status, clinical attachment loss (CAL) and probing depth (PD)]. Analyses on five-year tooth loss were limited to half-mouth data.
Results: The predictive value of tested definitions was markedly age- and gender-dependent: in 20-39-aged men, the number of decayed or filled surfaces best predicted the number of lost teeth, whereas in young women CAL≥4 mm performed best. In older subjects, periodontal definitions were superior to caries definitions: mean CAL performed best in 40-59-year olds, whereas AL- or PD-related definitions predicted best in 60-81-year olds. On tooth level, mean CAL was the superior definition to assess 5-year incident tooth loss in all strata except for young men.
Conclusions: Caries parameters best predicted incident tooth loss in men aged 20-39 years; in the intermediate and oldest age group and in young women, mean AL was most informative. Therefore, prediction models need to be developed for different age and gender groups.
(© 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.)