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Disease spread models in wild and feral animal populations: application of artificial life models.
- Source :
-
Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics) [Rev Sci Tech] 2011 Aug; Vol. 30 (2), pp. 437-46. - Publication Year :
- 2011
-
Abstract
- The role that wild and feral animal populations might play in the incursion and spread of important transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD), has received less attention than is warranted by the potential impacts. An artificial life model (Sirca) has been used to investigate this issue in studies based on spatially referenced data sets from southern Texas. An incursion of FMD in which either feral pig or deer populations were infected could result in between 698 and 1557 infected cattle and affect an area of between 166 km2 and 455 km2 after a 100-day period. Although outbreak size in deer populations can be predicted bythe size of the local deer population initially infected, the resulting outbreaks in feral pig populations are less predictable. Also, in the case of deer, the size of potential outbreaks might depend on the season when the incursion occurs. The impact of various mitigation strategies on disease spread has also been investigated. The approach used in the studies reviewed here explicitly incorporates the spatial distribution and relationships between animal populations, providing a new framework to explore potential impacts, costs, and control strategies.
- Subjects :
- Animal Diseases transmission
Animals
Cattle
Deer
Disease Outbreaks statistics & numerical data
Disease Outbreaks veterinary
Foot-and-Mouth Disease epidemiology
Foot-and-Mouth Disease transmission
Stochastic Processes
Swine
Texas epidemiology
Animal Diseases epidemiology
Animals, Wild
Models, Biological
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 0253-1933
- Volume :
- 30
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics)
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 21961216
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.20506/rst.30.2.2042