Can we predict final outcome of internal medicine residents with in-training evaluation.

Objective: To assess the predictive value of in-training evaluation for determining future success in the internal medicine board certifying examination.
Material and Method: Ninety-seven internal medicine residents from Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital who undertake the Thai Board examination during the academic year 2006-2008 were enrolled. Correlation between the scores during internal medicine rotation and final scores in board examination were then examined.
Results: Significant positive linear correlation was found between scores from both written and clinical parts of board certifying examination and scores from the first-year summative written and clinical examinations and also the second-year formative written examination (r = 0.43-0.68, p < 0.001). Monthly evaluation by attending staffs was less well correlated (r = 0.29-0.36) and the evaluation by nurses or medical students demonstrated inverse relationship (r = -0.2, p = 0.27 and r = -0.13, p = 0.48).
Conclusion: Some methods of in-training evaluation can predict successful outcome of board certifying examination. Multisource assessments cannot well extrapolate some aspects of professional competences and qualities.