Back to Search
Start Over
Nottingham knee osteoarthritis risk prediction models.
- Source :
-
Annals of the rheumatic diseases [Ann Rheum Dis] 2011 Sep; Vol. 70 (9), pp. 1599-604. Date of Electronic Publication: 2011 May 25. - Publication Year :
- 2011
-
Abstract
- Objectives: (1) To develop risk prediction models for knee osteoarthritis (OA) and (2) to estimate the risk reduction that results from modification of potential risk factors.<br />Method: This was a 12-year retrospective cohort study undertaken in the general population in Nottingham, UK. Baseline risk factors were collected by questionnaire. Incident radiographic knee OA was defined by Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) score ≥2. Incident symptomatic knee OA was defined by KL ≥2 plus knee pain. Progression of knee OA was defined by KL ≥1 grade increase from baseline. A logistic regression model was used for prediction. Calibration and discrimination of the models were tested in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) population and Genetics of Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle (GOAL) population. ORs of the models were compared with those obtained from meta-analysis of existing literature.<br />Results: From a community sample of 424 people aged over 40, 3 risk prediction models were developed. These included incidence of radiographic knee OA, incidence of symptomatic knee OA and progression of knee OA. All models had good calibration and moderate discrimination power in OAI and GOAL. The ORs lied within the 95% CIs of the published studies. The risk reduction due to modifying obesity at the individual and the population levels were demonstrated.<br />Conclusions: Risk prediction of knee OA based on the well established, common modifiable risk factors has been established. The models may be used to predict the risk of knee OA, and risk reduction due to preventing a specific risk factor.
- Subjects :
- Aged
Body Mass Index
Disease Progression
Epidemiologic Methods
Female
Humans
Knee Injuries complications
Male
Middle Aged
Obesity complications
Occupational Diseases diagnostic imaging
Occupational Diseases etiology
Occupational Diseases prevention & control
Osteoarthritis genetics
Osteoarthritis, Knee diagnostic imaging
Osteoarthritis, Knee prevention & control
Radiography
Risk Factors
Logistic Models
Osteoarthritis, Knee etiology
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1468-2060
- Volume :
- 70
- Issue :
- 9
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Annals of the rheumatic diseases
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 21613308
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1136/ard.2011.149807