Early cancer-related death after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background: Surgeons have attempted to prevent early cancer-related death after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma to identify risk factors associated with early death from hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver resection.
Methods: The study group comprised 350 patients who had undergone liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma between 1997 and 2007. The preoperative risk factors for early death from intrahepatic recurrence (within 1 year after resection) were evaluated.
Results: Fourteen (4%) patients died of intrahepatic recurrence in the first year after resection. Multivariate analyses identified the following risk factors for early cancer-related death: multiple tumors (odds ratio 10.4; 95% confidence interval, 2.42-44.3; P = .002), vascular invasion (odds ratio 10.1; 95% confidence interval 2.07-50; P = .004), serum alpha-fetoprotein level >20 ng/mL (odds ratio 9.52; 95% confidence interval 1.0--84.2; P = .043), and tumor size ≥50 mm (odds ratio 4.80; 95% confidence interval 1.06-21.9; P = .042). Each of these factors was assigned a score of 1 point, and an algorithm was developed to predict the risk of early death. Outcomes did not differ significantly between patients with 3 or 4 points (P = .48) or between those with 1 or 2 points (P = .49). Patients who underwent liver resection could be stratified into the following distinct groups according to the point score and the associated 1-year survival rate and median survival (shown respectively): 0 points, 99%, and not yet; 1 or 2 points, 96%, and 68 months; and 3 or 4 points, 50%, and 12 months) (P < .0001).
Conclusion: Even if hepatocellular carcinoma is resectable, patients with a score of 3 or 4 points may not be good candidates for liver resection.
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