A modelling approach to support dynamic decision-making in the control of FMD epidemics.

Authors :: Ge L
Mourits MC
Kristensen AR
Huirne RB
Source :: Preventive veterinary medicine [Prev Vet Med] 2010 Jul 01; Vol. 95 (3-4), pp. 167-74. Date of Electronic Publication: 2010 May 14.
Publication Year :: 2010
Abstract: Most studies on control strategies for contagious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) evaluate pre-defined control strategies and imply static decision-making during epidemic control. Such a static approach contradicts the dynamic nature of the decision-making process during epidemic control. This paper presents an integrated epidemic-economic modelling approach to support dynamic decision-making in controlling FMD epidemics. This new modelling approach reflects ongoing uncertainty about epidemic growth during epidemic control and provides information required by a dynamic decision process. As demonstrated for a Dutch FMD-case, the modelling approach outperforms static evaluation of pre-fixed control strategies by: (1) providing guidance to decision-making during the entire control process; and (2) generating more realistic estimation of the costs of overreacting or underreacting in choosing control options.<br /> (Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Subjects :: Animals
Communicable Disease Control economics
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Decision Support Techniques
Disease Outbreaks prevention & control
Disease Outbreaks veterinary
Foot-and-Mouth Disease economics
Humans
Markov Chains
Netherlands epidemiology
Risk Assessment
Communicable Disease Control methods
Decision Making
Foot-and-Mouth Disease epidemiology
Foot-and-Mouth Disease prevention & control
Models, Biological

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