Application of FRAX model to Sri Lankan postmenopausal women.

The FRAX software developed by the World Health Organization provides a method to estimate fracture probability of old men and women based on their bone mineral density (BMD) and clinical risk factors (CRFs). The validity of 4 selected ethnic-specific FRAX tools in determining prevalent fracture or treatment decisions in a group of postmenopausal women from Sri Lanka was examined. Women with a history of fragility fracture/s and those who were detected to have femoral neck T-score<2.5 were considered eligible for specific osteoporosis treatment. Ten-year all osteoporotic fracture (vertebral and nonvertebral) probability (10y-AOFP) of 481 postmenopausal women were estimated on US Caucasian, US Asian, Japanese, and Chinese FRAX tools, first using CRFs alone and then combining with femoral neck T-scores. At 20% 10y-AOFP, Chinese tool showed a very low sensitivity in detecting prevalent fracture or detecting women needing intervention (1.3%). Sensitivities observed with US Asian and Japanese tools ranged from 33% to 42%, showing their limitations in predicting prevalent fracture in this group of women. The US Caucasian tool, either with CRFs alone or with BMD incorporated, showed a relatively higher sensitivity in detecting fractures or identifying those needing interventions (71% and 76%, respectively). Furthermore, the US Caucasian tool showed a relatively high specificity (ranging from 70% to 87%). In conclusion, this analysis showed the limitations of the current FRAX tools in predicting fractures when applied to a different ethnic group. Until a separate FRAX tool is developed, the US Caucasian tool can be used to predict fractures in Sri Lankan postmenopausal women.
(Copyright (c) 2010 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)