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Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy.
- Source :
-
Epidemiology and infection [Epidemiol Infect] 2008 Dec; Vol. 136 (12), pp. 1650-7. Date of Electronic Publication: 2008 Feb 14. - Publication Year :
- 2008
-
Abstract
- To predict the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus in Italy and the impact of control measures, we developed a susceptible-exposed, but not yet infectious-infectious-recovered, and no longer susceptible (SEIR) deterministic model with a stochastic simulation component. We modelled the impact of control measures such as vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and social distancing measures. In the absence of control measures, the epidemic peak would be reached about 4 months after the importation of the first cases in Italy, and the epidemic would last about 7 months. When combined, the control measures would reduce the cumulative attack rate to about 4.2%, at best, although this would require an extremely high number of treated individuals. In accordance with international findings, our results highlight the need to respond to a pandemic with a combination of control measures.
- Subjects :
- Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Antiviral Agents therapeutic use
Child
Child, Preschool
Computer Simulation
Humans
Infant
Influenza Vaccines therapeutic use
Influenza, Human drug therapy
Italy epidemiology
Middle Aged
Psychological Distance
Young Adult
Disease Outbreaks prevention & control
Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype physiology
Influenza, Human epidemiology
Influenza, Human prevention & control
Models, Statistical
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 0950-2688
- Volume :
- 136
- Issue :
- 12
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- Epidemiology and infection
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 18272019
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026880800037X