[Incidence, time trend, survival, and predictive factors of lung cancer in Shanghai populations].

Objective: To investigate the incidence, survival, and influential factors of lung cancer in the Shanghai populations.
Methods: Data of individual cases of lung cancer 2000 - 2004 were obtained from the Shanghai Cancer registry System. The annual prevent change (APC) of incidence of lung cancer from 1972 to 2004 was calculate by crude and standardized rates so as to analyze the time trends. Cox proportional risk model was used to analyze the factors influencing the survival.
Results: 23,196 new cases of lung cancer were diagnosed 2002 - 2004. The crude incidence rate of lung cancer in the females was 33.73/100,000, and the age-adjusted rate was 30.90/100,000. The crude incidence rate of lung cancer and the age-adjusted rate for the males were 81.65/100,000 and 33.73/100,000 respectively, both higher than those of females. The APC values of crude incidence 2004 for both the males and females increased by 1.723% and 2.036% respectively in comparison with the values 1972 (both P < 0.01). The age-adjusted APC of standardized incidence rate for the males in the city center was -0.605% (P < 0.01), showing a tendency to reduce; while the age-adjusted APC of standardized incidence rate for the females in the city center was -0.136 (P > 0.05). The proportion of stage IV cases in the females was 47.5%, significantly higher than that in the males (40.0%, P < 0.05). The proportion of adenocarcinoma in the females was 86.1%, significantly higher than that in the males (47.8%, P < 0.05). The 3-year survival rate and median survival time of adenocarcinoma in the females were 30.38% and 1.48 years respectively, both significantly higher than those in the males (22.66% and 0.98 years, both P < 0.01). Female gender, being younger, living in urban area, squamous cancer, early stage, visit to higher-grade hospital were the factors beneficial to the prognosis of lung cancer.
Conclusion: The age adjusted incidence rate of lung cancer in Shanghai is much closer to that of Western Europe and North America. The beneficial factors for higher survival rate are female, younger age, urban residency, squamous cell lung cancer, earlier stage of diagnosis, and higher grade hospital for treatment. Women have statistically better outcomes than men in different stages of disease.