Welfare effects of reduced milk production associated with Johne's disease on Johne's-positive versus Johne's-negative dairy operations.

An examination of the economic impacts of reduced milk production associated with Johne's disease on Johne's-positive and Johne's-negative dairy operations indicated that, if Johne's disease had not existed in US dairy cows in 1996, then the economic surplus of Johne's-negative operations would have been $600 million+/-$530 million lower, while the economic surplus of Johne's-positive operations would have been higher by $28 million+/-$79 million, which was not significantly different from zero. The data available for projecting changes in surplus were not sufficiently precise to allow an exact statement on whether Johne's-positive operations would have been better or worse off economically, in terms of the value received for producing more milk if they had not been affected by Johne's disease. The changes in producer surplus, based upon eliminating specific epidemiological risk factors for Johne's disease, were disaggregated between Johne's-positive dairy operations exposed to the risk factor and all other US dairy operations. Eliminating the risk factor of having any cows not born on the operation would have had a significant positive effect on the economic surplus of Johne's-positive operations that had any cows not born on the operation.