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The accuracy of the Framingham risk-score in different socioeconomic groups: a prospective study.
- Source :
-
The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners [Br J Gen Pract] 2005 Nov; Vol. 55 (520), pp. 838-45. - Publication Year :
- 2005
-
Abstract
- Background: The primary prevention of cardiovascular disease involves using the Framingham risk score to identify high risk patients and then prescribe preventive treatments.<br />Aim: To examine the performance of the Framingham risk score in different socioeconomic groups in a population with high rates of cardiovascular disease.<br />Design of Study: A prospective study.<br />Setting: West of Scotland.<br />Method: The observed 10-year cardiovascular disease and coronary heart disease mortality rates in 5626 men and 6678 women free from cardiovascular disease from the Renfrew/Paisley Study were compared with predicted rates, stratified by socioeconomic class and by area deprivation score.<br />Results: The ratio of predicted to observed cardiovascular mortality rate in the 12 304 men and women with complete risk factor information was 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.52 to 0.60), a relative underestimation of 44%. Cardiovascular disease mortality was underestimated by 48% in manual participants (predicted over observed = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.48 to 0.56) compared to 31% in the non-manual participants (predicted over observed = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.60 to 0.81, P = 0.0005). Underestimation was also worse in participants from deprived areas (P = 0.0017). Only 4.8% of individuals had a 10-year cardiovascular risk of >40% (equivalent to >30% 10-year coronary risk), and 81% of deaths occurred in the rest. If the Framingham score had been recalibrated for manual and non-manual members of this population, an additional 3611 individuals mainly from manual social classes would have reached the treatment threshold.<br />Conclusion: Currently recommended risk scoring methods underestimate risk in socioeconomically deprived individuals. The likely consequence is that preventive treatments are less available to the most needy.
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 0960-1643
- Volume :
- 55
- Issue :
- 520
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 16281999