Spatial epidemiology of the Asian honey bee mite (Varroa destructor) in the North Island of New Zealand.

We describe the spatial epidemiology of Varroa destructor infestation among honey bee apiaries in the greater Auckland area of the North Island of New Zealand. The study population was comprised of 641 apiaries located within the boundaries of the study area on 11 April 2000. Cases were those members of the study population declared Varroa-infested on the basis of testing conducted between April and June 2000. The odds of Varroa was highest in apiaries in the area surrounding transport and storage facilities in the vicinity of Auckland International Airport. A mixed-effects geostatistical model, accounting for spatial extra-binomial variation in Varroa prevalence, showed a 17% reduction in the odds of an apiary being Varroa infested for each kilometre increase in the squared distance from the likely site of incursion (95% Bayesian credible interval 7-28%). The pattern of spatially autocorrelated risk that remained after controlling for the effect of distance from the likely incursion site identified areas thought to be 'secondary' foci of Varroa infestation initiated by beekeeper-assisted movement of infested bees. Targeted investigations within these identified areas indicated that the maximum rate of local spread of Varroa was in the order of 12 km/year (interquartile range 10-15 km/year).