Predictors of congestive heart failure mortality in elderly people from the general population.

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is highly prevalent in the elderly. The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of CHF mortality in patients over 65 years of age who were free of CHF at initial screening. A total of 3,282 elderly subjects were recruited in a population-based frame and 12-year events were recorded. Continuous items were divided into tertiles and for each tertile adjusted the relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was derived in both genders from multivariate Cox analysis of CHF mortality. Age > or = 72 years ([RR]: 2.24; 95% CI 1.56 - 3.24), male gender ([RR]: 1.4; 95%CI 1.02 - 1.76), clinical history of coronary artery disease ([RR]: 1.25; 95% CI 1.02 - 1.76), pulse pressure > or = 79 mmHg ([RR]: 1.33; 95% CI 1.03 - 1.87), heart rate > or = 81 bpm ([RR]: 1.32; 95% CI 1.10 - 1.96), atrial fibrillation ([RR]: 1.82; 95% CI 1.18 - 2.81), left ventricular hypertrophy ([RR]: 1.42; 95% CI 1.01 - 2.02), diabetes ([RR]: 1.35; 95% CI 1.02 - 1.78), vital capacity < or = 81% of the theoretical value ([RR]: 2.50; 95% CI 1.88 - 3.32), forced expiratory volume in 1 second < or = 72% of the theoretical value ([RR]: 2.02; 95% CI 1.55 - 2.72) and serum sodium level < or = 139 mmol/L ([RR]: 1.95; 95% CI 1.44 - 2.63) predicted CHF mortality. This model is able to identify elderly people at increased risk of death from CHF.