The distribution of Culicoides imicola in Italy: application and evaluation of current Mediterranean models based on climate.

In August 2000 bluetongue (BT) disease appeared amongst sheep on the island of Sardinia spreading later to Sicily and to mainland Italy. The majority of areas affected by BT were surveyed for Culicoides imicola, the only proven vector of the disease known to occur in the Mediterranean region. The data from 1456 light-trap collections, made in months with a mean temperature of 12.5 degrees C, were used to test the accuracy of current models predicting the prevalence and abundance of C. imicola across the region. For Italy, the distribution of C. imicola was found to be very irregular and did not fit the modelled predictions. The possible reasons for this are discussed, and suggestions made as to which variables may improve this fit in the development of future risk models. In Italy, past surveys failed to reveal the presence of C. imicola, and so could be construed as evidence of its recent invasion, and thus rampant spread northwards. Although equivocal, historical records indicate that C. imicola was overlooked in the past. Six recommendations are made as to the possible future course of Culicoides research in southern Europe.