Predicting cognitive impairment in high-functioning community-dwelling older persons: MacArthur Studies of Successful Aging.

Objectives: To examine whether simple cognitive tests, when applied to cognitively intact older persons, are useful predictors of cognitive impairment 7 years later.
Design: Cohort study.
Setting: Durham, North Carolina; East Boston, Massachusetts; and New Haven, Connecticut, areas that are part of the National Institute on Aging Established Populations for Epidemiological Studies of the Elderly.
Participants: Participants, aged 70 to 79, from three community-based studies, who were in the top third of this age group, based on physical and cognitive functional status.
Measurements: New onset of cognitive impairment as defined by a score of less than 7 on the Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (SPMSQ) in 1995.
Results: At 7 years, 21.8% (149 of 684 subjects) scored lower than 7 on the SPMSQ. Using multivariate logistic regression, three baseline (1988) cognitive tests predicted impairment in 1995. These included two simple tests of delayed recall-the ability to remember up to six items from a short story and up to 18 words from recall of Boston Naming Test items. For each story item missed, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for cognitive impairment was 1.44 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.16-1.78, P <.001). For each missed item from the word list, the AOR was 1.20 (95% CI = 1.09-1.31, P <.001). The Delayed Recognition Span, which assesses nonverbal memory, also predicted cognitive impairment, albeit less strongly (odds ratio = 1.06 per each missed answer, 95% CI = 1.003-1.13, P =.04).
Conclusions: This study identifies measures of delayed recall and recognition as significant early predictors of subsequent cognitive decline in high-functioning older persons. Future efforts to identify those at greatest risk of cognitive impairment may benefit by including these measures.