Plains cottonwood's last stand: can it survive invasion of Russian olive onto the Milk River, Montana floodplain?

Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia L.) was introduced in 1950 onto one site on the Milk River floodplain, northern Montana, 10 km downstream from the Canada/United States border. To analyze dispersal of Russian olive from the point source between 1950 and 1999, we compared distribution, numbers, size structure, and mortality of Russian olive and plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides Marsh:) on an unregulated reach of the Milk River floodplain in southeastern Alberta and north-central Montana. Within 50 years, Russian olive in this reach has moved upriver into Alberta and downriver to the Fresno Reservoir. It is now present on 69 of the 74 meander lobes sampled, comprising 34%, 62%, and 61% of all Russian olive and plains cottonwood seedlings, saplings, and trees, respectively. On some meander lobes, Russian olive has colonized similar elevations on the floodplain as plains cottonwood and is oriented in rows paralleling the river channel, suggesting that recruitment may be related to river processes. Breakup ice had killed 400 Russian olive saplings and trees and damaged >1000 others on 30 of the meander lobes in 1996. Nevertheless, Russian olive now outnumbers cottonwood on many sites on the Milk River floodplain because its seeds can be dispersed by wildlife (particularly birds) and probably by flood water and ice rafts; seeds are viable for up to 3 years and germination can take place on bare and well-vegetated soils; and saplings and trees are less palatable to livestock and beaver than plains cottonwood. Without control, Russian olive could be locally dominant on the Milk River floodplain in all age classes within 10 years and replace plains cottonwood within this century.