Predicting first-year relapses in children with nephrotic syndrome.

Objective: More than half of the children diagnosed with nephrotic syndrome will have relapses. These can be infrequent relapses (IRs: <2 in 6 months or <3 in a year) or frequent relapses (FRs: >2 in 6 months or >3 in a year). Patients who relapse while on alternate day steroids or within 1 month of discontinuation of steroid therapy are considered steroid-dependent (SD; J Pediatr. 1982; 101:514-518). Patients with an IR course have a better long-term prognosis, and many of them have minimal-change disease without mesangial hypercellularity or sclerosis. The purpose of our study was to identify factors at initial presentation that could predict the relapse pattern in the first year after diagnosis, without taking into consideration the histopathology found on renal biopsy.
Design: We analyzed the medical records of children who were seen by us before March 1997 and followed for at least 1 year. Variables selected in the study were age, sex, race, presence or absence of hematuria, and days to remission (defined as protein-free) at the initial presentation, because they could relate to the pattern of relapses (ie, IR, FR, and SD).
Results: Of 70 patients, 14 were excluded because of insufficient data. There were 38 males (67.9%) and 18 females (32.1%), giving a male:female ratio of 1.8:1. Median age at presentation was 3.25 years (range: 1.5-13), and 76.9% were white, 8.9% black, 7.1% Hispanic, and 7.1% other. Of all the patients, 23 were IR (41.1%), 9 were FR (16.1%), and 24 were SD (42. 9%). Median days to remission were 10 (range: 2-60), on Prednisone 60 mg/M(2) daily. Hematuria was present initially in 26 patients (46. 4%), and absent in 30 (53.6%). Age, sex, race, and hematuria, as independent variables, were not predictors of relapses in the first year. However, using a stratified analysis based on the presence or absence of hematuria, we found that if the remission occurred within the first week of therapy, the patients without hematuria were more likely to be IR. The sensitivity and specificity of this finding were 67% and 89%, respectively, with a positive predictive value of 94%.
Conclusion: We conclude that of all the presenting features, the rapidity of initial response to steroid therapy combined with the presence of hematuria, could predict future relapses and should be well documented.