Assessment and forecast of Beijing and Shanghai's urban ecosystem health.

Abstract: In this paper, we first analyze the 5 most cited papers with the title containing “Urban ecosystem health” in Chinese academic journals, and 5 newer papers retrieved from the CSSCI (Chinese Social Sciences Citation Index). The results show that the number of indicators to be used together in more than three papers is 28, and then we select 27 of them to assess Beijing and Shanghai's urban ecosystem health from 2000 to 2011. Secondly, when we standardize the original data, the worst value adjustment coefficient is introduced innovatively. Thirdly, using the entropy method, the weights of concrete indicators of Beijing and Shanghai in the different adjustment coefficients are calculated respectively. Fourthly, based on the fuzzy matter-element method, using the Hamming approach degree, the two cities' ecosystem health index and the contribution value to overall health index from each component are calculated. Lastly, using gray prediction model, the evolutionary time response sequence function of Beijing and Shanghai's urban ecosystem health index is identified, and thus both cities' urban ecosystem health is predicted. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]