The Impact of Losing Majority Party Status on Retirement from the House, 1945-2010.

This paper examines the impact of the loss of majority party status on the decision to retire. We hypothesize that members who move from the majority to the minority are more likely to retire because the benefits of serving would decline due to the loss of their ability to exert influence and make public policy. Using data on every member in the 79th - 111th Congresses, we find that losing majority party status has a significant impact on the decision to retire as the probability of retiring, ceteris paribus, is over 63%. During the Conservative Coalition Congresses (1945-64), we also find that conservative Democrats are more likely to retire when their party loses the majority. In the partisan Congresses (1994-2010), we find that members in seats that favor their party are more likely to retire immediately after losing majority party status but party leaders are able to keep members from seats that favor the other party from retiring until after the initial shock of losing the majority wears off. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]