From system cost minimization to sustainability maximization—A new fuzzy program approach to energy systems analysis.

Abstract: The transformation of existing energy systems into sustainable energy systems is a task which is related to several of the most urgent global problems, e.g. security of energy supply, shortage of resources, and climate change. Energy system modeling has played an important role in the computation of optimal possible future energy systems. In particular, technology oriented bottom-up energy system models have given insight into the required evolution of the energy technology mix. In face of the discussion about climate change, energy systems analysis has focused on the calculation of cost minimal energy futures subject to greenhouse gas mitigation paths, especially CO2 mitigation paths. IKARUS-LP is a model of the German energy system which has been used for optimization tasks of this type. As CO2 mitigation covers only one facet of sustainability, IKARUS-LP has been enhanced to optimize the German energy system for various sustainability targets specified by energy indicators for sustainable development. The resulting model is a fuzzy linear program, IKARUS-FLP. It computes an optimal compromise between the partly contradictory sustainability targets and system cost minimization. In this paper we introduce this model. Emphasis is given to the derivation of the crisp equivalent of the fuzzy problem. We show that a context-based semantics of fuzzy constraints is not adequate and found our semantics on the fuzzy extension principle. In a real-world case study for a time horizon until 2030 the mitigation path approach of IKARUS-LP and the sustainability optimization approach of IKARUS-FLP are compared. The results prove the feasibility of our new approach and its usefulness. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]