Modeling Transmission of Tuberculosis with MDR and Undetected Cases.

This paper presents a novel mathematical model with multidrug-resistant (MDR) and undetected TB cases. The theoretical analysis indicates that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < 1; otherwise, the system may exist a locally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium. The model is also used to simulate and predict TB epidemic in Guangdong. The results imply that our model is in agreement with actual data and the undetected rate plays vital role in the TB trend. Our model also implies that TB cannot be eradicated from population if it continues to implement current TB control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]