Modeling and evaluating proliferation resistance of nuclear energy systems for strategy switching proliferation

Abstract: This paper reports a Markov model based approach to systematically evaluating the proliferation resistance (PR) of nuclear energy systems (NESs). The focus of the study is on the development of the Markov models for a class of complex PR scenarios, i.e., mixed covert/overt strategy switching proliferation, for NESs with two modes of material flow, batch and continuous. In particular, a set of diversion and/or breakout scenarios and covert/overt misuse scenarios are studied in detail for an Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) system. Both probabilistic and deterministic PR measures are calculated using a software tool that implements the proposed approach and can be used to quantitatively compare proliferation resistant characteristics of different scenarios for a given NES, according to the computed PR measures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]