DECOMPOSIÇÃO DOS CICLOS DO PIB BRASILEIRO.

The paper applies a structural approach to isolate the "product gap". The application of a methodology for accounting of cycles allows target fluctuations of Brazilian industrial production originated in productivity shocks and shocks that distort the choices of families between work and consumption. This structural decay to set a measure of potential output more tuned to the economic theory. It was found that most of the cyclical fluctuations of the industrial product is due to shocks in productivity. If this is true, "the product gap" measured through filters contains, actually, changes in product potential. Consequently, monetary policy could be calibrated so perverse. The methodological change significantly affect the relevant results of the inflation target relevant model. In particular, the effect of real interest on the product gap measured this way is significantly less than that measured in conventional form. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]