Gene flow in poplar - experiments, analysis and modeling to prevent transgene outcrossing.

The demand for energy and forestry products is globally increasing, raising the question if traditional breeding programs are efficient and fast enough to keep up with these demands. A possible solution seems to be the use of genetic engineering techniques, since classical breeding strategies are time-consuming and limited by species barriers. Besides the advantages of genetic engineering technologies, concerns are also raised by scientists regarding these methods. Consequently, risk analysis of genetic modified trees in plantation forestry is a fundamental research topic. This paper presents a sequence of steps in risk analysis dealing with genetic modified poplar clones in the natural environment, ranging from investigations of flowering phenology, to molecular identification of gene flow patterns and their statistical interpretation, to modeling approaches to simulate different scenarios of plantations using genetic modified poplars in realistic European landscapes. All steps are evaluated for their potential to forecast the risk of outcrossing of gene constructs into native populations. The application of the results achieved to short rotation plantations are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]