Russia Renewed?

On close examination, much that looks new and different in Russia today turns out to be neither. The genuinely novel features--namely, robust economic growth and a popular president--owe more to the high price of oil and other unpredictable economic factors than to President Vladimir Putin's policies or any actual reforms. Although the effectiveness and novelty of Putin's regime are often exaggerated, some significant changes have occurred since Boris Yeltsin resigned. The most remarkable change, however, is not in President Putin's policies, but in his popularity. One of the most important of Putin's declared goals on coming to office was to break the power of the oligarchs. Another supposed change effected by Putin relates to Russia's government structure. His administration has shown an intelligent understanding of corruption's causes and has passed legislation to try to reduce it. Many in both the West and Russia have applauded Putin for dramatically reorienting the country's foreign policy. Unfortunately, the country is fighting an unpopular and probably unwinnable war against Chechen guerrillas. The sources of Putin's appeal are probably complex, but rapid growth in living standards has surely played a part. However, with elections coming in 2003 and 2004, and $17 billion in debt payments due next year, Putin seems understandably anxious about the economic indicators. A final difference from the Yeltsin years is more subtle. Despite the continuing obstacles in the way of Russia's modernization, there is in Moscow an unfamiliar sense of optimism.