Prostate-Specific Antigen and Long-Term Prediction of Prostate Cancer Incidence and Mortality in the General Population▪

Abstract: Background: It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population. Objective: Determine whether baseline PSA levels predict long-term risk of PCa incidence and mortality. Design, setting, and participants: We examined 4383 men aged 20–94 yr from the Danish general population in the prospective Copenhagen City Heart Study. PSA was measured in plasma samples obtained in 1981–1983. Measurements: PCa incidence and mortality as a function of baseline PSA was assessed using Kaplan-Meier plots of cumulative incidence and competing risk subhazard ratios. Results and limitations: During 28 yr of follow-up, 170 men developed PCa, and 94 men died from PCa. Median follow-up was 18 yr (range: 0.5–28 yr). For PCa incidence, the subhazard ratio was 3.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9–4.6) for a PSA level of 1.01–2.00 ng/ml, 6.8 (95% CI, 4.2–11) for PSA 2.01–3.00 ng/ml, 6.6 (95% CI, 3.4–13) for PSA 3.01–4.00 ng/ml, 16 (95% CI, 10.4–25) for PSA 4.01–10.00 ng/ml, and 57 (95% CI, 32–104) for PSA >10.00 ng/ml versus 0.01–1.00 ng/ml. For PCa mortality, corresponding subhazard ratios were 2.2 (95% CI, 1.3–3.9), 5.1 (95% CI, 2.8–9.0), 4.2 (95% CI, 1.8–10), 7.0 (95% CI, 3.8–14), and 14 (95% CI, 6.0–32). For men with PSA levels of 0.01–1.00 ng/ml, the absolute 10-yr risk of PCa was 0.6% for ages <45 yr, 0.7% for ages 45–49 yr, 1.1% for ages 50–54 yr, 1.2% for ages 55–59 yr, 1.3% for ages 60–64 yr, 1.1% for ages 65–69 yr, 1.3% for ages 70–74 yr, and 1.5% for ages ≥75 yr; corresponding values for PSA levels >10.00 ng/ml were 35%, 41%, 63%, 71%, 77%, 69%, 75%, and 88%, respectively. Conclusions: Stepwise increases in PSA at first date of testing predicted a 3–57-fold increased risk of PCa, a 2–16-fold increased risk of PCa mortality, and a 35–88% absolute 10-yr risk of PCa in men with PSA levels >10.00 ng/ml. Equally important, the absolute 10-yr risk of PCa in men with PSA levels 0.01–1.00 ng/ml was only 0.6–1.5%. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]