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Derivation and Validation of a Prediction Rule for Estimating Advanced Colorectal Neoplasm Risk in Average-Risk Chinese.
- Source :
-
American Journal of Epidemiology . Mar2012, Vol. 175 Issue 6, p584-593. 10p. - Publication Year :
- 2012
-
Abstract
- No prediction rule is currently available for advanced colorectal neoplasms, defined as invasive cancer, an adenoma of 10 mm or more, a villous adenoma, or an adenoma with high-grade dysplasia, in average-risk Chinese. In this study between 2006 and 2008, a total of 7,541 average-risk Chinese persons aged 40 years or older who had complete colonoscopy were included. The derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 5,229 and 2,312 persons, respectively. A prediction rule was developed from a logistic regression model and then internally and externally validated. The prediction rule comprised 8 variables (age, sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, green vegetables, pickled food, fried food, and white meat), with scores ranging from 0 to 14. Among the participants with low-risk (≤3) or high-risk (>3) scores in the validation cohort, the risks of advanced neoplasms were 2.6% and 10.0% (P < 0.001), respectively. If colonoscopy was used only for persons with high risk, 80.3% of persons with advanced neoplasms would be detected while the number of colonoscopies would be reduced by 49.2%. The prediction rule had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74, 95% confidence interval: 0.70, 0.78) and calibration (P = 0.77) and, thus, provides accurate risk stratification for advanced neoplasms in average-risk Chinese. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
- Subjects :
- *ADENOMA
*COLON tumors
*MEDICAL screening
*RISK assessment
*RESEARCH
*AGE distribution
*CALIBRATION
*CANCER
*CHI-squared test
*COLONOSCOPY
*CONFIDENCE intervals
*DIABETES
*DIET
*DISCRIMINANT analysis
*EPIDEMIOLOGY
*MEDICAL cooperation
*QUESTIONNAIRES
*REGRESSION analysis
*RESEARCH funding
*STATISTICAL sampling
*SEX distribution
*SMOKING
*STATISTICS
*LOGISTIC regression analysis
*DATA analysis
*PREDICTIVE validity
*CROSS-sectional method
*RECEIVER operating characteristic curves
*RESEARCH methodology evaluation
*DISEASE progression
*DESCRIPTIVE statistics
*DISEASE risk factors
*TUMOR risk factors
*CANCER risk factors
RECTUM tumors
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00029262
- Volume :
- 175
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- American Journal of Epidemiology
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 73764628
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwr337