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Modelling the long term impact of climate change on the carbon budget of Lake Simcoe, Ontario using INCA-C
- Source :
-
Science of the Total Environment . Jan2012, Vol. 414, p387-403. 17p. - Publication Year :
- 2012
-
Abstract
- Abstract: This study presents a process-based model of dissolved organic carbon concentration ([DOC]) in catchments draining into Lake Simcoe, Ontario. INCA-C, the Integrated Catchment model for Carbon, incorporates carbon biogeochemical processes in a terrestrial system with hydrologic flow paths to simulate watershed wide [DOC]. The model successfully simulates present-day inter-annual and seasonal [DOC] dynamics in tributaries draining catchments with mixed or contrasting land cover in the Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW). The sensitivity of INCA-C to soil moisture, hydrologic controls and land uses within a watershed demonstrates its significance as a tool to explore pertinent environmental issues specific to the LSW. Projections of climate change under A1B and A2 SRES scenarios suggest a continuous monotonic increase in [DOC] in surface waters draining into Lake Simcoe. Large variations in seasonal DOC dynamics are predicted to occur during summer with a possibility of displacement of summer [DOC] maxima towards winter and a prolongation of summer [DOC] levels into the autumn. INCA-C also predicts possible increases in dissolved inorganic carbon in some tributaries with rising temperature suggesting increased CO2 emissions from rivers as climate changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00489697
- Volume :
- 414
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Science of the Total Environment
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 70908809
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.10.025