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Sensitivity of discharge and flood frequency to twenty-first century and late Holocene changes in climate and land use (River Meuse, northwest Europe).
- Source :
-
Climatic Change . May2011, Vol. 106 Issue 2, p179-202. 24p. - Publication Year :
- 2011
-
Abstract
- We used a calibrated coupled climate-hydrological model to simulate Meuse discharge over the late Holocene (4000-3000 BP and 1000-2000 AD). We then used this model to simulate discharge in the twenty-first century under SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1, with and without future land use change. Mean discharge and medium-sized high-flow (e.g. Q) frequency are higher in 1000-2000 AD than in 4000-3000 BP; almost all of this increase can be attributed to the conversion of forest to agriculture. In the twentieth century, mean discharge and the frequency of medium-sized high-flow events are higher than in the nineteenth century; this increase can be attributed to increased (winter half-year) precipitation. Between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, anthropogenic climate change causes a further increase in discharge and medium-sized high-flow frequency; this increase is of a similar order of magnitude to the changes over the last 4,000 years. The magnitude of extreme flood events (return period 1,250-years) is higher in the twenty-first century than in any preceding period of the time-slices studied. In contrast to the long-term influence of deforestation on mean discharge, changes in forest cover have had little effect on these extreme floods, even on the millennial timescale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 01650009
- Volume :
- 106
- Issue :
- 2
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Climatic Change
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 59984582
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9926-2