Linkages, Interests, and Post-Conflict Democratization.

This paper is based upon the application of the concepts of societal linkages and economic/political leverage developed by Levitsky and Way (2006) in their study of hybrid regimes to determine the prospects of creating what Doyle and Sambanis (2006) consider a positive, or democratic peace following the termination of a violent civil conflict. This paper explores both the long and short term effects of ties to the core Western democracies (EU and US) as well as ties to other influential powers (Soviet Union/Russian Federation) upon the development of post-conflict politics. The main focus centers upon the degree to which these ties change the interests and incentives of domestic actors both in the Western democracies and the post-conflict state. In order to measure this, I improve upon Levitsky and Way's operationalization of linkage and leverage by constructing an index based upon trade patterns, civil society ties, alliance partnerships, and regional interests. Using this index I am able to measure the effect of linkage and leverage on the construction of positive peace following civil conflicts over the entire 1945-2008 time period. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]