The Timing of Superdelegate Decisions: Constituency Attitudes and Elite Behavior.

The decision-making process of contemporary elites, specifically with regard to the nomination of presidential candidates, has escaped consistent scholarly attention. This is due, in part, to the power structure of the process, where the bulk of authority lies with rank-and-file party identifiers in the electorate, rather than with those who occupy the organizational strata of the parties. However, the institution of a special class of unpledged delegate, comprised of party leaders and elected officials (a.k.a. "superdelegates"), coupled with rare primary elections where the behavior of these delegates are consequential to the outcome, afford scholars the opportunity to learn about elite decision-making in an internal organizational context. The 2008 nomination contest was one of those rare occasions. Drawing upon a unique primary source survey of superdelegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention, this paper explores the nexus between the time of publicly announcing a preference for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, and the aggregate and individual level factors that went into the decision about whom to support. We focus on the electoral connection between superdelegate officeholders and their constituents, who may express (or have already expressed) a different candidate preference. We find that both constituent and individual ideological factors played a role in the decision-making process of the superdelegates. The paper concludes with broader implications and considerations for candidate selection in the American political context. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]