Predicting the Popularity of Online Content.

The article presents methods for gauging and predicting the popularity of internet news stories and videos, drawing examples from the web sites Digg and YouTube. Evidence is presented that popularity prediction is possible because of definite regularities in the patterns of user attention, when internet users are focusing on content. In addition, early access patterns are said to provide key indicators of whether the content will hold its popularity. It is noted that groups such as web site administrators, online advertisers, and internet service providers all have a vested interest in becoming able to predict online content popularity accurately.