Predicting the effects of climate change on natural enemies of agricultural pests

Abstract: Climate change can have diverse effects on natural enemies of pest species. Here we review these effects and their likely impacts on pest control. The fitness of natural enemies can be altered in response to changes in herbivore quality and size induced by temperature and CO2 effects on plants. The susceptibility of herbivores to predation and parasitism could be decreased through the production of additional plant foliage or altered timing of herbivore life cycles in response to plant phenological changes. The effectiveness of natural enemies in controlling pests will decrease if pest distributions shift into regions outside the distribution of their natural enemies, although a new community of enemies might then provide some level of control. As well as being affected by climate through host plants and associated herbivores, the abundance and activity of natural enemies will be altered through adaptive management strategies adopted by farmers to cope with climate change. These strategies may lead to a mismatch between pests and enemies in space and time, decreasing their effectiveness for biocontrol. Because of the diverse and often indirect effects of climate change on natural enemies, predictions will be difficult unless there is a good understanding of the way environmental effects impact on tritrophic interactions. In addition, evolutionary changes in both hosts and natural enemies might have unexpected consequences on levels of biocontrol exerted by enemies. We consider interactions between the pest light brown apple moth and its natural enemies to illustrate the type of data that needs to be collected to make useful predictions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]